My Daily Thoughts


Decision Versus Outcome

Decisions are bets on the future, and they aren’t ‘right’ or ‘wrong’based on whether they turn out well on any particular iteration.
Annie Duke

Making a good decision is not the same as picking a good outcome.

It is possible to make a great decision that has a poor outcome.

I see this during my investing.  I can make a good decision in choosing a stock to invest in.  If the stock loses me money, the decision was still a good decision.  The criteria for making investment decisions can then be augmented with the learning from the stock that had a bad outcome.

This mindset allows you to focus on making good decisions without having to worry about what the outcome is.  If you judge your decisions based on the outcome, you will hesitate to make decisions because you would never know if you made a good decision until you saw the outcome.

Poker is the ultimate example of focusing on making good decisions.  In poker, you need to make good decisions on every hand.  You may not win every hand, but if you make good decisions on each hand, over the course of the game you will come out ahead.

Focus on creating criteria for making good decisions.

Live the Adventure


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