My Daily Thoughts


Confidence and Colgate

Forcing ourselves to express how sure we are of our beliefs brings to plain sight the probabilistic nature of those beliefs, that what we believe is almost never 100% or 0% accurate but, rather, somewhere in between.
Annie Duke

There is a toothpaste commercial where it is stated that 4 out of 5 dentists recommend Colgate toothpaste.

What people don’t get is that the same 4 dentists could also recommend Crest, it is not an either-or situation.

For me, it is the same with opinions.  I can have two different opinions that I have different degrees of confidence in.  It is only when I am making a decision that one of the opinions will win out over the other.

It is the same with beliefs.  I can believe that honesty is the best policy, and I can believe that I am responsible for the outcome of my actions.  It is when I am making a decision that I have to choose which of the two beliefs are more important in the situation.

Live the Adventure


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