Choosing a course of action comes down to the creation of options to choose from.
Those options are simply different future states.
Construct the potential different future states based on your understanding of current state and your understanding of the domain. To this you can bring your experience of what future state looked like in other domains.
Try to do this as objectively as possible. Create each future state as if it were the ideal one.
Once you have the future states defined it simply becomes a decision for which one to go with.